I meant to have thoughts about Brexit this morning. And then I started reading things, and realised that trying to think all those thoughts in a single morning was definitely optimistic.
In the interim, here is a summary of the arguments from the Economist:
My summary for the “Let’s Stay” Crowd:
- Everything will be more expensive if the UK leaves.
- The EU membership fees aren’t really all that high.
- The UK can’t really get away from regulation, so it may as well keep the EU regulations.
- In or out, there will still be high immigration.
- The UK will be doubly influential because it gets to be the UK and also the EU at international things.
The “Let’s Go” Crowd:
- The EU is required to negotiate a new trade agreement with the UK if it decides to leave – and actually, free trade is a thing with or without the EU, so favourable trading terms will be there whether the UK stays or whether it leaves.
- Membership fees are still membership fees.
- If the UK leaves, it can keep the EU regulations that it wants to keep, and toss the rest.
- There will still be high immigration, agreed – but at least it won’t have to automatically favour EU immigrants.
- The UK isn’t actually represented by the EU at international things, because the EU has to represent all the other EU countries as well.
Here’s a cartoon:
From what I’ve read up to this point, I’m almost afraid that I might pull a Boris Johnson…
Rolling Alpha posts about finance, economics, and sometimes stuff that is only quite loosely related. Follow me on Twitter @RollingAlpha, or like my page on Facebook at www.facebook.com/rollingalpha. Or both.