I’m afraid that I’m having one of those days where early morning meetings on the back of a week of meetings has left me a little lost for words and very much lost for time.
So I’m sharing something that I’ve kept in reserve for just such a morning. It’s a list of 9 ‘black swan’ events (that is: things that are only supposed to happen every million years or so). Of course, all these have happened in the last two decades – so clearly, our statistical methods are a bit off. That said, some of these events aren’t really black swans – more like gray ugly ducklings. But still.
Rolling Alpha posts opinions on finance, economics, and the corporate life in general. Follow me on Twitter @RollingAlpha, and on Facebook at www.facebook.com/rollingalpha.
Philip Sterne October 14, 2016 at 06:50
Ah but if there were about a million possible “black swans” lurking out of sight then we would expect to see about one a year and our statistical methods wouldn’t be off at all!Reply