I meant to have thoughts about Brexit this morning. And then I started reading things, and realised that trying to think all those thoughts in a single morning was definitely optimistic.

In the interim, here is a summary of the arguments from the Economist:

Brexit Debate

My summary for the “Let’s Stay” Crowd:

  • Everything will be more expensive if the UK leaves.
  • The EU membership fees aren’t really all that high.
  • The UK can’t really get away from regulation, so it may as well keep the EU regulations.
  • In or out, there will still be high immigration.
  • The UK will be doubly influential because it gets to be the UK and also the EU at international things.

The “Let’s Go” Crowd:

  • The EU is required to negotiate a new trade agreement with the UK if it decides to leave – and actually, free trade is a thing with or without the EU, so favourable trading terms will be there whether the UK stays or whether it leaves.
  • Membership fees are still membership fees.
  • If the UK leaves, it can keep the EU regulations that it wants to keep, and toss the rest.
  • There will still be high immigration, agreed – but at least it won’t have to automatically favour EU immigrants.
  • The UK isn’t actually represented by the EU at international things, because the EU has to represent all the other EU countries as well.

Here’s a cartoon:

Thanks this website
Thanks this website

From what I’ve read up to this point, I’m almost afraid that I might pull a Boris Johnson…

Happy Monday.

Rolling Alpha posts about finance, economics, and sometimes stuff that is only quite loosely related. Follow me on Twitter @RollingAlpha, or like my page on Facebook at www.facebook.com/rollingalpha. Or both.