Good morning

Notes:

  • To subscribe and receive these posts by email, you can sign up at the top of the sidebar →
  • Please also follow me on twitter: @RollingAlpha

The headlines:

  1. The SEC has found someone and found them manipulating markets.

    Link: high-speed rolling.

    Hold Brothers Online Investment Services is a brokerage firm that was allowing clients to “manipulate” the market by repeatedly submitting and cancelling orders.

    Which sounds a lot like indecision. But it works as follows: traders are attracted to activity, much like sharks to a struggling seal. And then, if there’s enough activity, they go into a frenzy. They adopt the extremely-rebuttable position of:

    “No smoke without fire, kids. Besides, if I don’t get in there and I miss a good trade, my clients will be all up in my grille about my not-being-able-to-tell-where-the-action-is. On the other hand, if I get in there and it goes badly, I’ll be making losses along with everyone else, so no client will jump ship because we’ll all be as bad as each other. It’s a no lose – no lose situation. Which must mean win-win. TALLY-HO, BITCHES!”

    *runs in swinging a scimitar*

    So some traders get together, and proceed to bang the water with an oar, or blow smoke signals. And the traders get excitable.

    And then the bosses see what’s happening with the 22 year olds on the trading floor, and they pass a discreet message along to a friend down the street, and then the SEC gets to take some credit and grab some spotlight.

    The Hold Brothers got a fine.

  2. RIM is releasing Blackberry 10.

    Link: what – no delays?

    Here’s a plan: “let’s release BB10 in the first quarter next year”.

    Here’s a question: “does anyone care?”

    In the world of smartphones, you have a 12 month contract period to fix your uselessness. That’s how long it takes me to replace my phone. Annually.

    And then, when you think about it, it’s a lot shorter a time period because I only buy phones because they’re cool and recommended and used by my friends.

    In Malcom Gladwell’s “The Tipping Point”, he talks about products being like contagious epidemics. If no one is catching, and there are no carriers, then, well, that’s the end…

    Someone needs to declare time of death.

  3. US stocks fall amid “stimulus concerns”.

    Link: and look at Apple’s shares!!

    Well, Apple shares are falling. And I don’t think that’s “stimulus concerns” so much as supply-side shortages.

    Here’s why we all should have SHORTED THE SHARES on Friday #calledit and #hereaswell:

    But as for the other stocks, it may have something to do with the fact that people are worried.

    Stimulus is useful for growth. But what happens if it doesn’t work?

    Observation: a large number of the US companies and CEOs are doing very well at the moment. Their profits and bonuses respectively are almost back to pre-crisis levels. Here’s a graph:

    According to the stock market, we’re all good and America is out of recession.

    So then what is happening?

    The general consensus seems to be that all the US companies are sitting on cash piles and not expanding.

    Starting with the premise: “the reason that the US economy is not recovering is because there’s not enough money for people to spend; so we should increase the money supply to stimulate demand so that the firms have money to invest and grow and hire people…” Well that’s beginning to sound a bit misguided, hey?

  4. China bankrolls Chavez.

    Link: economic sovereignty, my proverbial.

    Chinese loans with Venezuelan oil as collateral.

    And, to quote Mr Chavez:

    “Venezuela’s oil is at the service of China”.

    Hail the overlords.

  5. Christine Lagarde: let them write off Greek debt.

    Link: off with her head.

    Woah.

    That’s, like, a declaration of war in Germany. All the Germans screaming: “Ve knew zis vas coming. It’s VHY ve DIDN’T WANT ZE ECB TO BUY IT IN ZE FüRST PLACE”.

    Here’s some logic: the Greek prospects from growth are too weak with all the current austerity; therefore, they need to have some of the debt burden forgiven.

    Go Christine for going there.

That’s all for now.

Have a good day.