Here’s a youtube clip that might be worth your time (even if the voiceover accent had me briefly confused between ‘call’ and ‘cull’):

Basically, the problem with looking to winners for guidance is “survivorship bias”. The idea: people who win at life are generally inclined to thank themselves for all their hard work (ahem, Donald Trump) – rather than seeing themselves as fortunate outliers in the game of fate.

On the other hand, I’m pretty sure that life can be pretty depressing if your entire worldview is based on the idea that it’s all luck – and no amount of active effort on your part can really change anything.

Can we call that second option “victimisation bias”?

Either way, we apparently need to strive for balance. Which is a bit of an anticlimax, now that I’ve written it.

Ah well. Happy Thursday.

Rolling Alpha posts opinions on finance, economics, and the corporate life in general. Follow me on Twitter @RollingAlpha, and on Facebook at