In the lead-up to the presidential elections, I’m endorsing this youtube clip from VOX.
I realise that it may not be especially economics-ey, but I think that the point is important: often, when we apply conventional logic (geography) to something that seems related (voters across said geography), we get it wrong. Badly wrong. Almost as wrong as likening an economy to a household.
Here’s the standard presidential presentation (from the 2012 Romney v Obama election):
And from that angle, it seems crazy that Obama won. The whole of the country is basically a sea of red votes for Romney, with some isolated pockets of Obama, and then some purple in between.
But Obama won.
So what’s going on?
Well, clearly, if I was the kind of person that likened economies to households, I’d be saying things like:
- The system is obviously rigged.
- The comeuppance day is coming.
- <rhetoric>
But the simple problem is that the map too linear. There is more than geography at play. There is population density.
And once you do that:
Suddenly, it’s less surprising, right?
Perspective: it matters.
Also, don’t get fanatical about the two-dimensional simplicity of things. Leave that to the conspiracy theorists.
Rolling Alpha posts about finance, economics, and sometimes stuff that is only quite loosely related. Follow me on Twitter @RollingAlpha, or like my page on Facebook at www.facebook.com/rollingalpha. Or both.
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